In 2016, there were both opportunities and challenges for the development of China's equipment industry. There were positive factors such as the implementation of various new policies during the 13th Five Year Plan period and the continuous expansion of industrial development space, as well as unfavorable factors such as sustained sluggish domestic and foreign demand, and difficulties faced by enterprises exceeding expectations. At present, the mechanical industry continues to differentiate, and the added value of manufacturing industries such as instruments and meters is on the rise. The main general mechanical products are showing varying degrees of decline, but the overall opportunities outweigh the challenges. China's equipment industry will present a new development form and trend, with new energy vehicles, high-end equipment, intelligent manufacturing, etc. becoming growth highlights.
The downward pressure on the equipment industry has been reduced, and the growth rate of production and exports has steadily rebounded
Since 2015, the economic recovery of developed countries has remained slow, and the expansion of emerging economies has been weak. The impact of non economic factors such as geopolitical factors still exists. China's economy is in a difficult process of transforming old and new driving forces. Although the overall stable trend of economic operation has not changed, the growth rate of added value in China's equipment industry has remained low in the first eight months due to downward fluctuations in major industries such as automobiles and sluggish demand. In September and October, industries such as automobiles rebounded rapidly, and the growth rate of the equipment industry also stabilized and rebounded. From January to October, the industrial added value of equipment manufacturing enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year, lower than the national industrial level of the same period and less than half of the same period in 2014. It is expected that the growth rate of China's equipment industry will continue to rebound throughout the year, but under the pressure of shrinking investment demand and foreign trade situation, the rebound rate is limited. In 2015, the annual growth rate was around 5.5%. In terms of exports, the growth rate of export value from January to October showed a decreasing trend month by month, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.15%. The decline in October slightly decreased, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.32%. It is expected that the export situation will remain severe throughout the year, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of around 2.5% in the value of exports.
In 2016, under a series of policy incentives at the beginning of the 13th Five Year Plan, the downward pressure on China's equipment industry will be reduced. Although the international economic situation is still severe, with the gradual deepening and accelerated implementation of China's three major regional development strategies, medium - and long-term manufacturing power construction strategies, and the acceleration of international production capacity and equipment manufacturing cooperation, new growth points, growth poles, and growth belts are gradually formed, and the domestic economy will maintain medium to high-speed growth. Driven by this, China's equipment industry will accelerate its development throughout 2016, and the growth rate of industrial added value will accelerate and rebound year-on-year. It is expected to maintain around 7% throughout the year. In terms of exports, during the 13th Five Year Plan period, China will cultivate and develop the equipment industry as a new export leading industry. At the same time, due to the decrease in export base in 2015, the growth rate of China's equipment product exports is expected to accelerate and rebound in 2016, and the export value will achieve year-on-year growth. It is expected that the cumulative increase for the whole year will be around 5%.
The trend of continued differentiation in the mechanical industry
The mechanical industry continues its trend of differentiation. Since 2015, China's mechanical industry has faced significant difficulties in operation, with the growth rate of major indicators hitting a new low and overall showing a sluggish trend, with some industries showing differentiated performance. From January to October, the added value of general equipment manufacturing increased by 3.2% year-on-year, specialized equipment manufacturing increased by 3.5%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 7.3%, and instrument and meter manufacturing increased by 5.7%. The production of major general mechanical products such as pumps, gears, gas compressors, and fans has shown varying degrees of decline; The production of metal cutting machine tools decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, with CNC metal cutting machine tools decreasing by 9.8% year-on-year and metal forming machine tools decreasing by 6% year-on-year; The total production of construction machinery has declined, with excavators and loaders experiencing a year-on-year decrease of 24.5% and 28.9%, respectively; The production of traditional power generation equipment such as thermal power and wind power has decreased significantly, but the production of wind turbines has increased by 15.8% year-on-year; The production of large tractors increased significantly by 32.3% year-on-year, while that of medium-sized tractors increased by 7.2%. However, the production of small tractors decreased by 15.5% year-on-year.
In 2016, uncertain factors affecting the economic operation of the industry still exist, and the mechanical industry will still face severe tests. But with the gradual implementation of national macroeconomic regulation policies, the macroeconomic situation is gradually improving, and the downward trend of the mechanical industry will gradually stabilize. In addition, positive factors for industry development are also accumulating, and some enterprises, industries, and regions that started early in structural adjustment will accelerate their recovery. At the same time, some mechanical industries will continue their growth and differentiation trend: traditional investment products such as engineering machinery, heavy machinery, mining machinery, petrochemical equipment, conventional power generation equipment, as well as industries with relatively excess production capacity such as machine tools, AC motors, low-voltage electrical appliances, wires and cables, and small and medium-sized ordinary agricultural machinery products, will continue their downward trend. The new agricultural machinery, energy-saving and environmental protection equipment, cultural relic protection equipment supported by the government Modern logistics equipment will accelerate growth.
Intelligent manufacturing continues to accelerate the innovation and development of high-end equipment
Intelligent manufacturing continues to accelerate its development. Since 2015, intelligent manufacturing has received policy attention from *. Made in China 2025 and "Internet" Action * deploy intelligent manufacturing, propose to vigorously develop intelligent manufacturing, carry out pilot demonstration of intelligent manufacturing, implement major projects of intelligent manufacturing, * promote intelligent manufacturing process. The cooperation between China and Germany in intelligent manufacturing and Industry 4.0 has entered a practical stage, and a regular working mechanism has been officially established. The rapid development of new industries and models, represented by intelligent factories, digital workshops, additive manufacturing technology applications and large-scale personalized customization, network collaborative development, online monitoring, remote diagnosis, and cloud services, has led to the continuous expansion of the application of intelligent equipment and products such as industrial robots, service robots, new sensors, intelligent instruments and control systems, wearable devices, intelligent home appliances, and smart grids, The demand scale is rapidly expanding.
In 2016, as the 13th Five Year Plan lifted intelligent manufacturing to a new level, the promotion routes for intelligent manufacturing in various fields were further clarified, and the cooperation between China and Germany was further deepened. The country will build an open, shared, and collaborative intelligent manufacturing industry ecosystem, promoting the intelligent upgrading of production equipment, process optimization and transformation, comprehensive sharing of basic data, and continuous breakthroughs in key intelligent equipment, products, and core components, Promote the continuous development and growth of industries such as new generation information and communication technology, high-end equipment, energy-saving and new energy vehicles, power equipment, agricultural machinery equipment, new materials, biopharmaceuticals, and high-performance medical devices, and gradually form a new manufacturing system. And further rely on the innovative industrial format and development model of intelligent manufacturing to cultivate new growth points in the industry.
New developments have emerged in the innovation and development of high-end equipment. In 2015, in response to changes in domestic and international market demand, the equipment manufacturing industry continuously transformed and upgraded, and the development of high-end equipment achieved significant results. The proportion of output value of high-end equipment manufacturing industry in the equipment manufacturing industry gradually increased. Made in China 2025 clearly regards the high-end equipment innovation project as one of the five projects guided and promoted by the government, and proposes to organize the implementation of a number of innovative and industrialized special and major projects, such as large aircraft, aeroengines and gas turbines, civil aerospace, intelligent green trains, energy-saving and new energy vehicles, marine engineering equipment and high-tech ships, smart grid complete equipment, * CNC machine tools, nuclear power equipment, high-end medical equipment, etc. The purpose is to concentrate resources, coordinate progress, break through bottlenecks, improve innovation and development capabilities and international competitiveness, and seize the competitive high ground.
In 2016, the innovation and development of high-end equipment became increasingly evident as the main trend in the future development of the manufacturing industry. China will deeply implement the innovation driven development strategy, focus on creating new engines and support platforms for development, and accelerate the cultivation of new drivers of economic growth. With technological innovation as the core, public service platforms as the support, major special projects as the focus, and industrial applications as the goal, the development of high-end equipment innovation is accelerating. A batch of iconic and highly driving * products and major equipment will accelerate their layout, and the level of independent design, system integration ability, and core component development technology will gradually improve. The industrial innovation ability will continue to strengthen. A batch of first high-end equipment (sets) will be piloted and demonstrated in the fields of national economic construction, social production and life, and national defense construction. The industrial development path and mode will make breakthroughs, drive the adjustment and transformation of traditional industrial structure, and lay a more solid foundation for building a new competitive advantage in China's manufacturing industry and building a strong manufacturing country.
The continuous downturn of domestic effective demand is still difficult for enterprises to produce and operate
Domestic effective demand continues to be sluggish. Affected by weak domestic and foreign demand, equipment product orders have generally decreased, and market competition has become more intense. The overall price level has continued the downward trend in recent years. From January to September 2015, the cumulative price of equipment products decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, further expanding the decline. The overall social environment is not conducive to the development of the real economy, and the willingness of enterprises to invest is relatively weak. From January to October, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) was 44742.5 billion yuan, up 10.2% year on year, and the growth rate continued to decline. Among them, the investment in the manufacturing industry was 14845.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year; The investment in the equipment manufacturing industry is 5948 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and a growth rate of 0.3 percentage points compared to January to September. However, the total planned investment in new industrial projects nationwide only increased by 4.1% year-on-year. At the same time, the PMI index of China's manufacturing industry in August, September, and October was 49.7%, 49.8%, and 49.8% respectively, which was below 50% for three consecutive months. Therefore, in 2016, we still need to pay attention to the downturn in domestic effective demand of China's equipment manufacturing industry.
Exports still face some pressure. The current path of international economic recovery is still tortuous, and the overall demand in the international market is still weak. From the perspective of manufacturing PMI, the United States and others are still hovering at the bottom. Although the recent recovery momentum in Europe and Japan is relatively stable, the expansion efforts are weak and the foundation is not solid. The competition between industries in various countries is still fierce, and China is still facing significant trade protection pressure in the international market. The impact of non economic factors such as geopolitical factors still exists, and the negative factors that inhibit China's foreign trade growth can continue. There is an increasing tendency for equipment manufacturing enterprises to encounter trade barriers such as technological, green, and environmental protection, and standards when exporting. Meanwhile, from the perspective of manufacturing export orders, since October 2014, the export order index has been below 50% and showing a downward trend, reaching 47.4% in October 2015, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year. Although domestic policies are expected to accelerate and rebound the growth rate of China's equipment product exports, the environmental situation abroad will still form significant pressure on exports.
The production and operation of enterprises are still difficult. One is that cost pressure increases and profit margins decrease. From January to September 2015, the main business income of equipment industry enterprises increased by 3.22% year-on-year, but the main business cost increased by 3.78% year-on-year, the management expenses increased by 6.69% year-on-year, and the accounts receivable increased by 6.5% year-on-year, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 0.03% in the total profit of the enterprise. In addition, the factor cost, environmental cost, and social burden faced by the enterprise are constantly increasing. Secondly, the inventory of finished products has been increasing month by month, with a year-on-year increase of 6.83% from January to September, making it difficult for enterprises to sell their products. Thirdly, the financing pressure is constantly increasing. Although the central bank has lowered reserve requirements and interest rates multiple times this year, banks are reluctant to lend and some enterprises are unwilling to lend. The financing difficulties, high loan costs, and heavy financing burden guaranteed by manufacturers are commonly reflected in industries such as construction machinery and shipbuilding. Currently, many private shipbuilding enterprises have financing costs as high as 8% to 12%, making it difficult for enterprises to raise funds, which has led to the loss of many new ship orders in the industry. In 2016, China's equipment industry enterprises will still face significant difficulties in production and operation.
Some industries urgently need to accelerate structural adjustment. Since 2015, some industries in China's equipment manufacturing industry have achieved rapid growth through structural adjustment, but there are still some industries with low-end overcapacity and intensified vicious competition. In the context of the 13th Five Year Plan to promote the development of intelligent manufacturing and high-end equipment, these industries urgently need to accelerate structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading. In China, as one of the main industries in the field of intelligent manufacturing, industrial robots mainly focus on low-end products such as handling and loading and unloading robots, mostly three-axis and four-axis robots. The market for high-end industrial robots with six or more axes used in fields such as automotive manufacturing and welding is mainly occupied by Japanese and European and American enterprises. Due to the low entry threshold of the industry, many enterprises blindly invest, assemble in various areas, and carry out low-level repetitive construction, resulting in a trend of overcapacity in emerging industries. Among more than 40 parks and 800 enterprises in the country, enterprises that can truly achieve independent high-end manufacturing and profitability *.
Optimizing Industrial Layout and Enhancing the Level of Intelligent Manufacturing
Strengthen independent innovation and improve industry competitiveness. First, in accordance with the deployment and requirements of "Made in China 2025", we accelerated the organization and implementation of the national manufacturing industry innovation * construction project, high-end equipment innovation project, industrial foundation strengthening project, green manufacturing project, etc., launched the construction of a number of national innovation * and national laboratories in the field of equipment manufacturing, tackled key core technologies, basic common technologies, integrated innovation capabilities, etc., and promoted pilot demonstration applications. Secondly, we will continue to organize and implement major scientific and technological projects in the field of equipment, as well as research or industrialization projects. We will demonstrate the launch of a number of emerging and growing industry support projects such as robotics and 3D printing, and guide enterprises to increase research and development investment to address bottlenecks. The third is to accelerate the formulation and promotion of innovative application policies such as the insurance compensation mechanism for the first set of major technical equipment, encourage manufacturing enterprises and user departments to jointly carry out research and development, and promote the application of research and development achievements. The fourth is to encourage stronger cooperation between industry, academia, research and application, promote the construction of industrial technology innovation alliances, accelerate the establishment of industry common technology platforms and industry testing and testing service platforms, and strengthen the cultivation of innovative and applied talents.
Accelerate the improvement of the development level of intelligent manufacturing. One is to accelerate the pilot demonstration of intelligent manufacturing, promote the widespread application of intelligent manufacturing in production processes, enterprise management and services, energy management, logistics, and other aspects, accelerate the development of a batch of intelligent equipment and products, and promote the integrated application of intelligent manufacturing production models. The second is to accelerate the organization and implementation of intelligent manufacturing engineering, develop intelligent products and independently controllable intelligent devices and achieve industrialization, build intelligent factories and digital workshops in various fields, establish an intelligent manufacturing standard system and information security guarantee system, and build an intelligent manufacturing network system platform. Thirdly, in conjunction with the "Internet" plan, we will accelerate the integration, innovation, and engineering application of new generation information technologies such as industrial clouds and the Internet, and the integration of manufacturing equipment. We will also establish a cooperation platform to accelerate the intelligent and service-oriented transformation of the manufacturing industry. The fourth is to accelerate the promotion of Sino German intelligent manufacturing cooperation and promote the development of intelligent manufacturing in various fields.
Actively promote enterprises to explore domestic and foreign markets. One is to implement various "stable growth" measures, take multiple measures simultaneously, and create a good domestic market demand environment for equipment manufacturing enterprises. The second is to accelerate the implementation of the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting International Production Capacity and Equipment Manufacturing Cooperation", strengthen policy exchanges and cooperation between departments, jointly promote the construction of overseas economic and trade zones, improve the platform for government enterprise bank cooperation, and continue to promote the equipment manufacturing industry to go global. Third, support and guide domestic advantageous equipment enterprises to promote project cooperation in the fields of rail transit equipment, electric power equipment, petrochemical and metallurgical equipment, automobiles, engineering machinery, agricultural machinery, aviation equipment, ships and marine engineering equipment with the countries and regions along the "the Belt and Road" as the *.
Promote structural adjustment and optimize industrial layout. One is to optimize the product structure. Encourage the adoption of high-tech transformation to enhance the traditional equipment manufacturing industry, accelerate the cultivation and development of strategic emerging advanced equipment manufacturing industries such as high-end equipment, intelligent manufacturing, and new energy vehicles. The second is to optimize the organizational structure. Focusing on automobile, shipbuilding and other * industries, vigorously promote enterprise merger and reorganization and resource integration, improve the industry concentration ratio of * industries, and create large enterprise groups with strong core competitiveness and international operation capability; Strengthen the formulation of standards and industry access policies around emerging industries such as industrial robots, civilian drones, and additive manufacturing, and regulate industry development and market competition. The third is to optimize spatial layout, create a batch of industrialization demonstration bases with good project growth, high-end industrial level, outstanding leading enterprises, and complete cluster supporting facilities, and create an internationally renowned equipment manufacturing industry cluster.
